India faces strategic dilemma as US Russia sanctions bill prompts de-risking debate

Foreign affairs experts warn that the US Senate’s proposed tougher sanctions on Russia could reshape India’s foreign policy, forcing New Delhi to reconsider its reliance on Washington amid growing economic and strategic tensions.

Foreign affairs analysts say India should begin reducing its exposure to the United States after the US Senate approved a tougher Russia sanctions package that could hit major buyers of Russian energy with tariffs of up to 100%. The measure, passed 86-11, would still need approval from the House of Representatives before becoming law, but it has already sharpened debate in New Delhi over whether the relationship with Washington is entering a more durable phase of strain, according to Reuters-style reporting reflected in the supplied sources and recent coverage by Axios and Indian business publications.

Sushant Sareen, a foreign affairs expert, said the latest push in Washington suggested a deeper change rather than a short-lived disagreement. He pointed to earlier tariff action under Donald Trump and argued that India should stop treating the dispute as temporary. Sareen said the economics of the relationship would look very different if the United States imposed duties at that scale, and he urged policymakers to start “de-risking” from America in the same way they have discussed reducing dependence on China.

Former diplomat Mahesh Sachdev was even more critical, describing the legislation as an example of the United States extending its laws beyond its borders. He warned that targeting countries that continue to buy Russian or Iranian energy would disrupt global trade flows and push prices higher elsewhere, especially if large buyers such as China and India were forced into the open market. Sachdev also said the move appeared to be part of a broader effort to restore tariff powers after a US Supreme Court ruling had constrained earlier duties.

Not everyone in New Delhi sees the bill as an immediate threat. Another former diplomat, KP Fabian, said the Senate vote was only one step in a longer legislative process and that the House could alter the text substantially. He also argued that sweeping tariffs would likely raise oil prices and worsen pressure on the US economy itself. The revised bill, according to the supplied reporting, narrows an earlier proposal that had threatened 500% tariffs and now focuses on the five biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, including India and China, with an exemption for countries importing less than 15% of Russia’s gas exports.

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