Older consumers are set to drive more than half of emerging markets’ online spending growth, but most new buyers will rely on mobile wallets and domestic payment rails rather than credit cards.
Digital payments in emerging markets have not followed the path many Western companies once expected. Instead of moving neatly from cash to cards, much of the world has jumped from cash to mobile-first systems built around local rails, local wallets and domestic card networks. In countries such as Brazil and India, the strongest growth has come not from international brands, but from homegrown payment systems designed around lower-cost phones, wider financial inclusion and everyday retail use.
That shift matters because the next wave of online spending is coming from consumers who do not look like the traditional credit-card customer. A study by World Data Lab and EBANX found that adults aged 45 and over will account for 51% of the increase in annual online spending in emerging markets between now and 2036, equal to $4.4 trillion. The same research projects that online spending by people aged 65 and over will grow faster than spending by those aged 15 to 29, even though the younger group will still be large in absolute terms. Of the 834 million new online buyers expected worldwide over that period, only about one third are expected to have a credit card.
The structural gap between developed and emerging economies is stark. World Data Lab found that credit-card ownership across emerging regions ranges from just 3% to 26% of adults, while mobile-phone ownership is far higher, at 76% to 95%. That makes mobile-first checkout methods more practical than card-based systems in many markets. QR codes have become especially important because they can work on inexpensive smartphones and can connect either to bank accounts or e-money wallets. In Indonesia, for example, the QRIS system accepts payments from bank accounts and non-bank wallets, and some providers allow cash top-ups through retail outlets, broadening access for consumers who remain outside the formal banking system.
India shows how far a domestic payment rail can go once it becomes part of daily life. The Unified Payments Interface, or UPI, has grown into one of the world’s most heavily used payment systems, with around 228 billion transactions in 2025 and average payment values of about $15, according to the figures cited in the newsletter. Its appeal lies in its breadth: UPI is used from small street vendors to larger chains, and its users made an average of 457 transactions each in 2025. The same study said India will add 334 million middle-class consumers by 2036, while recurring online spending from adults without a credit card is expected to reach $167 billion a year, creating a major opening for UPI AutoPay and other account-to-account products.
India’s domestic card scheme, RuPay, is also gaining ground. Run by the National Payments Corporation of India, which operates UPI, RuPay can function as a debit or credit card and can also be linked to UPI. That has helped expand its footprint in credit-card spending, which the newsletter said rose from 3% to 18% over three years to the end of 2025. The broader lesson is that local schemes often have advantages international cards cannot easily match: tighter domestic approval flows, lower friction and deeper integration with local banking infrastructure.
Brazil offers a similar example through Pix, the instant payment system launched by the central bank in 2020. Reuters reported that Pix had more than 175 million users by May 2025 and had sharply reduced cash use across the country. The system’s growing functionality now extends beyond one-off payments. Pix Automático, launched in June 2025, allows recurring payments to be managed through the customer’s financial institution rather than through card networks. That matters in a market where Pix has already overtaken cards in everyday use, and where the central bank has pushed transparency by requiring banks to show active authorisations, scheduled payments and cancellation controls inside their apps.
The rise of local rails is changing what merchants need to offer if they want to sell internationally. In Latin America, Africa and Asia, recurring payment tools tied to local methods are already being used in a growing list of markets, and EBANX says one global software company added more than 4,000 new customers a day in India after enabling UPI AutoPay. In Argentina and Chile, instalments remain an important part of consumer finance, often because they help households manage budgets and inflation. The underlying message is that card-only checkouts increasingly miss the shape of demand in emerging markets, where consumers may be banked, mobile-first and
Disclaimer: This article is intended to inform and educate, not to recommend or endorse any financial product, investment or strategy. Please consider your own financial circumstances and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.
