Bloomberg Economics modelling suggests India’s existing and prospective trade agreements could lift GDP by 1.7% and exports by 6.2% by 2035, with a wider deal-making push potentially raising the gain to $170bn.
India’s growing web of free trade agreements could deliver a meaningful lift to the economy by 2035, according to analysis cited by Bloomberg Economics and reported by Indian business publications. The modelling suggests that, under a scenario in which existing pacts and selected agreements now under discussion are implemented as assumed, India could add about $140 billion to gross domestic product, equivalent to a 1.7% increase, with the gain measured at constant 2025 prices at roughly ₹13.30 lakh crore.
The report’s central case rests on deals already in force, along with agreements concluded or under negotiation with the European Union and New Zealand. Business Standard reported that these existing and near-term arrangements alone could raise GDP by 1.2%, while the additional European Union and New Zealand deals would take the total to 1.7% by 2035. The same analysis says exports could also rise, with Livemint reporting a projected 6.2% increase in export volumes versus a baseline without the agreements.
The broader message from the analysis is that trade liberalisation could help India deepen its role in global supply chains. Lower import costs, stronger foreign direct investment and productivity gains are all identified as possible benefits. Industry and policy reports based on the same modelling say India’s trade programme already includes agreements with Australia and the United Arab Emirates, while newer pacts with the European Free Trade Association, the United Kingdom and Oman entered into force during 2025-26.
There is also scope for a larger upside if talks with other partners are completed. Business Standard and related reports said negotiations with the United States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Gulf Cooperation Council and Israel could push the total GDP gain to 2.1%, or about $170 billion, by 2035. Those same reports add that India may be relatively insulated from US tariff pressure because less than 2% of its output is tied to the American market, giving exporters some room to offset shocks elsewhere. The analysis also stresses that the figures are model-based rather than guaranteed outcomes, and that domestic reforms, better use of labour and lower manufacturing costs could amplify the benefits.
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