India’s long-standing trade talks with the United States are close to a breakthrough, with discussions advancing amid geopolitical pressures and regional competition, as India also seeks to diversify its trade partnerships with Canada.
India’s long-running trade negotiations with the United States appear close to a breakthrough, with India’s Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal saying the framework is nearly finished. Goyal told reporters this week that India has recently concluded nine free-trade agreements with other countries and described the U.S. pact as almost complete, although he said it will only move forward if Washington offers India terms that are competitive with those available to regional rivals.
The talks have been shaped by wider strains in the relationship, particularly over India’s purchases of Russian energy. President Donald Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports in August 2025, on top of an existing 25% reciprocal tariff, in response to those oil purchases. That measure was later rolled back in February after the two sides said they had reached a phase-one understanding. But the deal has remained vulnerable to geopolitical pressure, including a new sanctions law passed by Congress this month that would allow tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian oil, among them India and China.
Trade officials on both sides have continued to signal movement. According to a report from 5Paisa, U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said only a small portion of the agreement remains unresolved and that the two governments are working through final legal language covering thousands of tariff lines and trade provisions. Goyal is due to travel to the United States for the G20 Trade Ministerial in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where he is expected to meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Greer visited India in June and said at the time that substantial progress had been made.
Business groups are pressing for a rapid conclusion. Atul Keshap, president of the U.S.-India Business Council, urged both governments to finalise a reciprocal trade agreement before the end of the year, arguing that a deal would lower barriers and reduce tariffs while bringing greater predictability to one of the world’s most consequential economic relationships.
At the same time, Canada is intensifying its own trade outreach to India as it seeks to diversify away from the United States. According to a Canadian government statement, International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu met Goyal in Mumbai on 21 September to push forward negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, with both sides aiming to wrap up by the end of the year and lift bilateral trade to $70bn by 2030. Canada launched those talks in November 2025, and the government says it is preparing a Team Canada trade mission to India next month as part of a broader effort to expand ties beyond the US market.
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