A new bipartisan US Senate move to tighten sanctions on Russia could disrupt global crude supplies, with Indian refiners likely to face higher import costs due to increased dependence on Russian oil, experts warn.
A bipartisan US Senate move to tighten sanctions on Russia could disrupt crude supplies, but Indian refiners are unlikely to see an immediate break in flows, according to Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia. The bigger near-term risk, he said, is not a sudden halt in trade but a further squeeze in global oil markets that could lift India’s import costs.
The Senate passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 on Friday, giving President Donald Trump authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on imports from countries that are major buyers of Russian oil and gas. According to Axios, the bill cleared the chamber by an 86-11 vote, while Associated Press reported that the package is part of a wider effort to punish Moscow for the war in Ukraine and pressure buyers such as China and India to cut their reliance on Russian energy. The measure still has to clear the House of Representatives and would face further steps before taking effect.
India has become far more dependent on Russian crude since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when Western sanctions and the loss of European customers pushed Moscow to offer discounted barrels to Asian refiners. Data cited by the US Energy Information Administration show Russian supplies to India were below 100,000 barrels per day in 2021, then rose sharply to about 740,000 bpd in 2022 and nearly 1.8 million bpd in 2023. Kpler data show that imports reached a record 2.8 million bpd in July 2026, or about 55.5 per cent of India’s total crude intake.
Ritolia said Russian crude has become a buffer for Indian refiners, reducing their exposure to instability in traditional Middle Eastern supply routes. He added that a rapid clampdown on Russian exports would be difficult to offset in the short term and could tighten global balances rather than simply shifting barrels to other buyers. That, in turn, would raise India’s crude import bill, add pressure to the current account and intensify energy security concerns.
Disclaimer: This article is intended to inform and educate, not to recommend or endorse any financial product, investment or strategy. Please consider your own financial circumstances and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.
