UBS has revised its gold price outlook, expecting prices to reach $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2027 due to favourable structural forces, despite near-term volatility driven by changing interest rates and economic data.
UBS expects gold to climb to $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2027, arguing that structural forces should keep the metal attractive over the medium to long term. The bank, however, said in a note on Thursday that prices could remain volatile in the near term as markets digest changing interest-rate expectations and economic data.
The latest forecast marks another shift in UBS’s view of the market. In December 2025, the bank raised its target to $5,000 an ounce for the first three quarters of 2026, while also warning that political and economic risks could drive prices higher still. By May and June 2026, UBS had trimmed parts of its outlook as Treasury yields stayed elevated, the dollar held firm and U.S. growth proved more resilient than expected, pushing back expectations for Federal Reserve easing.
Even so, UBS still sees a supportive backdrop for gold. The bank expects U.S. inflation to slow gradually, allowing the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady this year before resuming cuts in 2027. That, UBS said, could put downward pressure on bond yields and the dollar, both of which tend to support demand for bullion.
Central-bank buying also remains a key pillar of UBS’s case. The bank expects official-sector purchases to stay strong, estimating that central banks could buy between 750 and 1,000 tonnes this year after adding 289 tonnes in the second quarter alone. That sustained demand, alongside investor appetite and a potential easing in monetary conditions, underpins UBS’s view that gold still has room to rise.
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