Economist S.P. Sharma suggests India has the potential to shift a significant portion of its exports to alternative markets, amid concerns over potential US tariffs on Russian crude and ongoing trade tensions.
India could redirect a substantial share of its exports to other markets if Washington follows through on threats of tariffs as high as 100% on countries buying Russian crude, economist S.P. Sharma said, arguing that Indian producers are not locked into the US alone. Speaking to ANI, Sharma said exporters could find about $200 billion of opportunity across 15 alternative markets for many of the same goods now sold to America, including the Netherlands, France, the UK, Latin America, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Nepal.
His comments come as Indian merchandise shipments to the US have continued to edge higher despite trade uncertainty. ANI reported that exports to the US stood at $87.3 billion in 2025-26, compared with $86.5 billion in 2024-25. That resilience fits with broader trade data showing the US has become more important for India over time: Business Standard reported last year that America’s share of India’s merchandise exports rose from 4.8% in FY12 to 7% in FY23.
Sharma said India’s export growth to alternative destinations is running faster than growth in the US market, which he estimated at 10% to 15%. He said shipments to other countries are expanding at about 20% to 25%, suggesting Indian firms already have room to spread risk. That view is reinforced by stronger demand in some sectors: Business Standard reported that electronics exports to the US more than doubled to $6.6 billion in January to September 2023, showing how deeply Indian manufacturers have already penetrated the American market even amid wider global headwinds.
At the same time, the wider export backdrop remains fragile. S&P Global said global trade conditions deteriorated modestly in late 2023, with new export orders still in contraction territory. India’s own goods exports fell nearly 7% in August 2023 to $34.5 billion, according to The Times of India, while the merchandise trade deficit widened to $24 billion, the highest that year, according to The New Indian Express. Against that background, Sharma argued that trade friction would hurt both economies, saying higher US tariffs could feed inflation for American consumers and that ongoing negotiations on a bilateral trade agreement would be more useful than fresh barriers.
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