A US Senate move to impose tariffs on Russian energy exports raises concerns about India’s growing dependence on Russian crude amid tightening global supplies and geopolitical tensions.
A US Senate vote to advance tougher sanctions on Russia has revived concern over the security of Indian crude supplies, but analysts say the measure is unlikely to change oil flows immediately. Sumit Ritolia, an analyst at Kpler, said the proposal still faces legislative and administrative hurdles and its eventual effect will depend heavily on how aggressively the Trump administration enforces it.
The Senate passed a bipartisan bill on Friday that would authorise President Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports from countries that are among the world’s biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act of 2026 is aimed at cutting Moscow’s energy revenue, but it still needs approval from the House of Representatives and could be delayed further before taking effect.
Ritolia said any attempt to choke off Russian barrels would have to be judged against a market that remains tight, with geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East increasing the value of alternative supplies. He warned that a sharp restriction on Russian oil could squeeze global balances rather than simply reroute trade, pushing up prices if replacement barrels are not available quickly enough.
India’s exposure to Russian crude has expanded sharply since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, when Western sanctions and the loss of many European customers forced Moscow to offer deep discounts to Asian refiners. The US Energy Information Administration says Russian crude shipments to India were below 100,000 barrels a day in 2021, but climbed to about 740,000 bpd in 2022 and nearly 1.8 million bpd in 2023, making Russia India’s largest supplier that year. Kpler data show imports reached a record 2.8 million bpd in July 2026, or about 55.5% of India’s total crude intake.
The reliance has also become a strategic buffer for Indian refiners, Ritolia said, because it reduces their dependence on traditional Middle Eastern supply routes. He said replacing Russian crude at current volumes would be extremely difficult in the short term and could raise India’s import bill, pressure the current account and deepen energy-security worries if Washington were to move from threat to enforcement.
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