Titan's June-quarter rebound sparks bullish outlook amid jewellery demand surge

Titan’s robust June-quarter performance, driven by a resurgence in jewellery sales and steady gains in watches and eyecare, has prompted brokerages to raise earnings estimates and reinforce its growth outlook.

Titan’s strong June-quarter performance has reinforced the case for further outperformance, with brokerages lifting earnings estimates after a sharp rebound in jewellery demand and steady gains in watches and eyecare. The stock rose more than 3% in trading, making it the biggest gainer in the Sensex, and has climbed 17% over the past three months. It now trades at about 55 times estimated FY28 earnings.

The company’s consolidated revenue rose 29% in the quarter, led by jewellery sales, which increased 30%. Excluding bullion and digital gold, jewellery sales were up 43%. Watches and eyecare each grew 21%, with the watch business helped by mid-twenties growth in analogue watches and eyecare supported by a 21% rise in customers and double-digit gains in average selling prices.

Titan’s domestic jewellery business grew 38.2% year on year, aided by a 5% increase in buyers and a 31% rise in average ticket size. Analysts said the quarter was marked by a temporary soft patch in May, when demand was affected by the prime minister’s advisory, customs duty changes and Adhik Maas, but sales recovered sharply in June as wedding-related buying returned. ICICI Direct said jewellery demand was also supported by festive purchases and Akshaya Tritiya sales, with both buyer numbers and ticket sizes posting double-digit growth.

Profitability in jewellery was also firm. The segment reported a 14.2% operating margin in the quarter, helped by a ₹407 crore customs duty benefit after the levy was raised from 6% to 15%, creating inventory gains. Titan also benefited from a 75-80 basis point mark-to-market gain linked to the gap between international and domestic gold prices. Excluding the duty windfall, standalone jewellery margin improved 67 basis points to 11.6%.

Management expects jewellery margins to settle at around 11%, supported by efforts to lift gross margins, cut costs and improve the product mix. That mix is becoming richer, with a larger share of studded jewellery, more lower-carat pieces and fewer coin sales. Emkay Research said Titan had eased investor worries about slower growth after the recent dip in gold prices and repeated guidance from its analyst day that topline and operating profit should more than double over FY26-30. Motilal Oswal Research said the group remains well placed in an industry still formalising, while Antique Research said long-term gains should come from market-share growth, store expansion and better profitability in other businesses.

Disclaimer: This article is intended to inform and educate, not to recommend or endorse any financial product, investment or strategy. Please consider your own financial circumstances and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.