After a brief rebound, August natural gas futures face resistance and downside risk, reflecting a broader global oversupply trend. Analysts suggest near-term caution, but expect prices to rise sharply in 2027 due to increasing LNG exports.
Natural gas futures have turned fragile after a brief rebound, with the August contract around ₹254 per mmBtu after climbing more than 3% last week. The Hindu BusinessLine said the price met strong resistance near ₹270 and then lost ground, leaving the market biased to the downside. The immediate risk now is a break below ₹250, which could open the way to ₹238, while a recovery would still need to clear ₹270 before any sustained improvement can be argued.
That weakness fits a broader pattern in the global gas market. FXEmpire reported in late June and again in July that record US production, heavy storage builds and softer weather-driven demand have repeatedly capped rallies in August futures. The US Energy Information Administration has also projected lower Henry Hub spot prices in 2026, saying supply growth is likely to keep pace with demand this year.
Even so, the longer-term picture is not uniformly bearish. The EIA expects prices to rise sharply in 2027 as demand for gas used to feed liquefied natural gas export plants increases and leaves less fuel in storage. That means near-term supply pressure can coexist with a firmer medium-term outlook if exports keep expanding.
For traders, the immediate setup remains cautious. The Hindu BusinessLine’s strategy is to sell August natural gas futures on a rise to ₹258, with a target of ₹238 and a stop-loss at ₹270. Until the contract can decisively clear that upper band, rallies are likely to meet selling.
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