Morgan Stanley’s latest analysis highlights significant growth opportunities in India’s internet sector, with food delivery, e-commerce, and logistics set to benefit from rising digital adoption and economies of scale, as market shares surge and new models emerge.
Morgan Stanley says India’s internet economy still has room to expand sharply, with rising digital use expected to drive growth in food delivery, e-commerce and logistics as larger scale improves margins. The brokerage’s latest view comes after a strong rebound in internet shares, with its India Internet market-cap index up about 20% from an early-June low and ahead of the Nifty 50 over the past four months, according to the report.
The firm sees online food delivery as one of the clearest growth areas. It expects gross order value to reach about Rs 2 trillion by FY31, helped by a rise in penetration to 20% from 15% in FY26. Morgan Stanley also pointed to room for lower-cost delivery models, where slimmer order values could still support profitability through lighter overheads.
E-commerce logistics is another area where the brokerage believes India has significant headroom. It expects shipments excluding groceries to climb to 15 billion-16 billion by FY30, noting that shipments per person remain well below levels in the US and China. The report said this should support third-party logistics providers such as Shadowfax and Delhivery, with Shadowfax’s share of the e-commerce shipment market having risen from 8% in FY22 to roughly 28%-30% in FY26.
For platforms such as Meesho, Morgan Stanley highlighted stronger engagement and monetisation as key profit drivers. It expects orders per active buyer to increase to around 16 by FY29, supported by better logistics economics and advertising income. Broader industry reports also point to the same direction of travel: IBEF has cited Morgan Stanley’s earlier projection that India’s e-commerce market could reach $200 billion by 2026, while other industry research has flagged the growing role of tier-2 and tier-3 cities, along with rising adoption among small merchants and direct-to-consumer sellers.
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