Indian benchmark indices stress further into September amid continued foreign selling, soaring crude prices, and expectations of higher US bond yields, signalling cautious investor sentiment and technical weakness.
Indian stocks head into the September 14-18 trading week still under pressure after benchmark indices fell for a fifth straight week, as investors weighed expensive crude, firm US bond yields and persistent foreign selling. According to market commentary carried by Goodreturns and corroborated by Moneycontrol, the Sensex and Nifty closed at three-month lows, while the rupee also weakened over the week, adding to the cautious tone.
The Nifty 50 ended the week at 23,398.10 and the Sensex finished at 74,781.76, according to Moneycontrol, with both gauges down a little more than 2% on the week. Foreign institutional investors were net sellers for a fourth consecutive week, offloading shares worth Rs 1,795.19 crore, while domestic institutions bought Rs 6,419 crore, helping to cushion the fall. The flow pattern has become a key support factor for the market even as overseas investors remain reluctant to rebuild positions.
Crude remains one of the biggest short-term risks. Reports cited Brent trading close to $105 a barrel after swinging higher earlier in the week on Middle East tensions, with some market trackers noting it briefly moved above $109 before easing. Higher oil prices are a concern for India because they can lift the import bill, add to inflationary pressure and worsen the current account balance.
US rates are also in focus. The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly moved above 4.99%, a level not seen since 2023, as traders looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Recent US inflation data showed consumer prices rising 3.4% year-on-year in August, while core inflation eased to 2.4%, giving investors fresh clues on the path of rates. In India, the combination of firmer global yields and foreign outflows has kept the market on the defensive.
Technically, the Nifty is still fragile. Dr Ravi Singh of Master Capital Services told Goodreturns that the index has stayed below its 21-day and 55-day exponential moving averages, suggesting the downtrend remains intact. He identified 23,200 as immediate support and 23,000 as a more important floor, while 23,600 is the first meaningful resistance. For Bank Nifty, Singh pointed to 56,000 as near-term support and 57,100-57,200 as a resistance band, with the index also below key moving averages despite a partial rebound from its weekly low. The broader message for traders, he said, is to sell on rallies until the market can reclaim lost ground.
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