Investors stay cautious ahead of potential range-bound trading in Indian equities, weighed down by persistent crude oil pressures and technical profit-taking signals in key indices.
Indian equities are likely to stay cautious on Wednesday as investors weigh a soft close in the previous session against persistent pressure from crude oil, which remains close to the $90 a barrel level, according to the GoodReturns market note. The report said the Sensex and Nifty ended Tuesday lower, with the Nifty 50 slipping to an intraday low of 24,429.25 before trimming some losses. The Sensex fell 388.19 points, or 0.49%, to 78,154.25, while the Nifty 50 declined 112.10 points, or 0.46%, to 24,471.70.
Bajaj Broking Research said the Nifty’s daily chart now shows a bearish candle, reflecting profit-taking after a strong run. Even so, the brokerage argued that the broader trend still looks constructive because the index has spent six sessions moving sideways after giving back only a shallow part of its earlier advance. It expects the Nifty to move largely between 24,200 and 24,700 in the near term, with the 24,200-24,300 band acting as immediate support and 24,000 remaining a key floor.
The main upside trigger, according to the brokerage, is a convincing break above 24,700. That could open the way towards 25,000-25,200 in the coming weeks, it said. The firm added that traders may treat the current pause as a chance to accumulate stronger names, even as firmer crude keeps a lid on rallies. Historical IMF commodity data underline why oil matters so much to markets: swings in Brent have often fed directly into inflation expectations and broader risk appetite.
Bank Nifty also looked heavy, with its third straight bearish candle, although the long lower shadow suggested buying at lower levels. Bajaj Broking Research said the broader 56,500-58,700 consolidation band remains intact, with 58,000 the main hurdle. A move above that level could send the index towards 58,500-58,700, while a break below 57,000 may deepen the correction towards 56,500-56,200. Primus Partners has separately noted that Indian markets have been especially sensitive to crude spikes, which can hit sentiment through inflation worries and pressure on valuations.
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