Vinit Bolinjkar of Ventura forecasts a 7-8% rise in the Nifty 50 by year-end, citing cautious optimism driven by earnings upgrades and sector-specific prospects, while warning against overexposure to overvalued segments.
The Indian equity market has recovered modestly over the past two months and may still have room to climb, according to Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura, who sees the Nifty 50 rising another 7% to 8% by the end of the year if several supports fall into place. Bolinjkar said the benchmark’s recent rebound, after a five-month losing streak, has trimmed year-to-date losses, but further gains will depend on large private banks easing pressure from net interest margin compression, crude prices stabilising and the auto sector keeping up its recent strength.
He said the latest earnings season has broadly justified current valuations, with Q1 FY27 results surprising to the upside in several areas. Excluding oil marketing companies, corporate earnings grew about 17% year on year, helped by banks, metals, technology and autos, according to Bolinjkar. He flagged consumer durables as the main exception, saying investors have not fully accounted for new compressor norms due from March next year, which could create a sharper split between companies that already have manufacturing capacity and those that do not.
Bolinjkar remains constructive on selected IT companies after the sector had its strongest month in 6 years in July, but he urged investors to be selective rather than chase the rally. He prefers niche names such as Coforge, Persistent Systems, LTIMindtree and Tech Mahindra over larger legacy players, arguing that the impact of artificial intelligence on traditional service models is still evolving. Among his preferred themes are pharmaceuticals and healthcare, defence, aerospace and precision engineering, small finance and MSME lending, as well as auto ancillaries and capital goods. He is more cautious on consumer durables and construction EPC, where he says valuations have run ahead of fundamentals and execution risks remain elevated. On asset allocation, Bolinjkar suggested a diversified mix of 60% to 70% equities, 15% to 20% debt and 15% to 20% gold, saying debt now serves more as a stabiliser than a return driver while gold remains a portfolio hedge.
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