The BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty are on track to record their steepest nine-month decline in 15 years, prompting cautious outlooks amid geopolitical tensions and investor sentiment shifts.
The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty are on course to finish the first nine months of 2026 with double-digit losses, a pattern that has not been seen in 15 years, according to Business Standard’s analysis of market data. At around 72,700, the Sensex was down 14.7% for the year to date through September, while the Nifty, near 22,700, was off 13.1%. Both benchmarks are set to record their steepest drop for the same nine-month period in the past 15 years, after prolonged foreign investor selling, geopolitical tensions, firm crude prices and higher bond yields weighed on sentiment.
The weakness has not been limited to the headline indices. Business Standard reported that the Nifty Midcap 100 was down 1.4% over the same period, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 had gained 9%. That split suggests investors have been more selective further down the market, even as the broader mood has stayed cautious.
History offers some comfort, though it does not guarantee a quick turnaround. Business Standard said this would be only the fifth time in the past 15 years that both the Sensex and Nifty have fallen over the first nine months of a calendar year. In three of the previous four cases, the benchmarks recovered enough in the final quarter to end the year in the black. The strongest rebound came in 2020, when both indices recovered from nine-month losses and finished the year with double-digit gains. The only exception in the past 15 years was 2015, when both benchmarks ended the year lower.
Other recent market studies point to a similar message: sharp drawdowns are uncomfortable, but they are not unusual in Indian equities. Mint has reported that the Sensex has often suffered sizeable intra-year declines before recovering, with most calendar years still ending positively. Its analysis of long-term data found that market corrections of around 20% are common, and that patient investors have historically been rewarded over time.
For now, technical levels matter. Kotak Securities’ Shrikant Chouhan told Business Standard that the near-term trend for both benchmarks remains weak, with support for the Sensex at 72,200 and for the Nifty at 22,600. Resistance is seen at 73,000-73,500 for the Sensex and 22,850-23,000 for the Nifty. The coming weeks will show whether the market can stabilise after a bruising nine months or whether the current weakness extends into year-end.
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