HDFC Securities reiterates its ‘Buy’ call on Swiggy, citing a five-year growth roadmap that could see the company’s stock rise by nearly 68%, driven by strong forecasts for FY31 despite ongoing challenges in quick commerce.
HDFC Securities has kept its “Buy” call on Swiggy and says the stock could climb by nearly 68% from current levels, as the food delivery and quick-commerce company pushes ahead with an ambitious five-year plan. The brokerage set a target price of Rs 470 a share, arguing that Swiggy’s core delivery business and its cash position give investors a firmer base than the market may currently be pricing in.
The latest upbeat stance follows Swiggy’s FY26 analyst meet, where the company laid out a roadmap for FY31 that envisages adjusted EBITDA of Rs 10,000 crore and consolidated gross order value of about Rs 2.5 lakh crore. That would be more than three times the Rs 67,734 crore it reported in FY26, implying compound annual growth of more than 30% across the period.
HDFC Securities said the plan looks especially strong in food delivery, where Swiggy is targeting a 2.5 to 3.5 times rise in gross order value and adjusted EBITDA of Rs 5,000 crore. In quick commerce, the company is aiming for a 4 to 5 times expansion in gross order value and Rs 4,000 crore of adjusted EBITDA, though the brokerage was more cautious there, saying the segment still faces a difficult path to profitability.
The firm said the biggest question mark remains Instamart, Swiggy’s quick-commerce arm, and the level of competition it will face over FY26 to FY31. HDFC Securities said reaching break-even in quick commerce would require major gains in order density and in the mix of orders per stock-keeping unit, while much of the improvement in per-order economics would have to come from better margins and advertising revenue.
Even so, the brokerage said the downside risk from quick commerce may become less of a concern by FY28, as food delivery cash flows and treasury income are expected to more than offset losses in the segment. In earlier notes after Swiggy’s quarterly results, HDFC Securities said food delivery performance had been improving steadily and that quick-commerce losses may already have peaked, while also pointing to Swiggy’s cash reserve of Rs 1,590 crore as added support. At the same time, it has acknowledged that Instamart still trails rival Blinkit, underscoring that much of Swiggy’s long-term value will depend on execution in a fiercely contested market.
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