Coherent Wealth’s Aditya Agarwal warns investors to hold off on buying HDFC Bank despite its fallen share price, citing lack of bullish signals and potential further decline before a better entry point emerges.
Aditya Agarwal of Coherent Wealth is urging caution on HDFC Bank even after the stock has fallen to what many investors would consider attractive valuations. Speaking to Business Today, Agarwal said the bank still lacks a clear technical trigger and is more likely to act as a market performer than a standout winner in the near term. He argued that weakness in the broader private banking pack means cheapness alone is not enough to justify an aggressive purchase.
Agarwal expects the shares to go through a further phase of consolidation over the next few weeks, with a possible drift lower before a better entry point emerges. He identified the Rs 670-680 range as a more compelling buying zone, which implies another 7% to 8% downside from the levels discussed in the article. He added that investors should prefer staggered accumulation on declines rather than chasing the stock at current prices.
The caution comes against a mixed backdrop for HDFC Bank. Outlook Business reported in July that the stock had slipped about 10% from its post-results high, even as several brokerages stayed positive. That same report said June-quarter profit rose 5% year on year to Rs 19,060 crore, while net interest income increased 7% to Rs 33,534 crore, but margins remained the key concern. The Financial Express also noted that the stock had declined nearly 20% in 2026, with analysts pointing to leadership changes and governance concerns as factors investors are watching closely.
Not every broker has turned defensive. Moneycontrol reported that Motilal Oswal maintained a buy call on HDFC Bank with a target price of Rs 1,100, citing loan growth of 14.1% annually over FY26-FY28 and earnings growth of 14.2%. The brokerage expects return on assets of 1.9% and return on equity of 14.9% by FY28, while Outlook Business reported that analysts see margin pressure easing as high-cost borrowings mature. For now, though, Agarwal’s view is that the stock may be getting cheaper without yet offering the kind of price action that would signal a convincing breakout.
Disclaimer: This article is intended to inform and educate, not to recommend or endorse any financial product, investment or strategy. Please consider your own financial circumstances and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.
