A forecast of below-normal rainfall across India over the next two weeks, compounded by El Niño conditions, threatens to impact vital summer crops and exacerbate drought fears in key farming regions.
India’s monsoon is set to weaken across much of the west, central and southern parts of the country over the next two weeks, raising concerns for newly sown cotton, soybean, maize and pulse crops, according to weather officials and industry sources.
A senior official at the India Meteorological Department told Reuters that rainfall is likely to ease across most of India, with some eastern and northern states expected to see relatively better conditions. The official said the shortfall could be especially marked in western and southern regions. Another IMD official said the deficit could deepen by the end of the month as El Niño conditions strengthen, with temperatures also likely to rise above normal.
The warning comes after the IMD’s updated long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon put seasonal rainfall at about 90% of the long-period average, pointing to below-normal rains. A separate IMD statement put the figure at 92% of average, while its regional outlook suggested below-normal rainfall over most of the country, with some pockets in the north-west, north-east and parts of the south peninsula expected to fare better.
India had received 12% less rain than average so far this monsoon season, which began on June 1, with some southern areas such as Andhra Pradesh recording deficits of as much as 34%, Reuters reported. Near-normal rain in July had encouraged farmers to expand planting of summer-sown crops, but a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house said the roots of the young plants have not yet gone deep enough to withstand a prolonged dry spell.
Government data compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare showed summer-sown crops had been planted on 96.8 million hectares as of August 7, almost 2% lower than a year earlier. A CRISIL report warned that El Niño has historically been associated with weaker monsoons and drought, while a US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service report said the monsoon core zone, which covers much of India’s rainfed farmland, was likely to face below-normal rainfall.
Disclaimer: This article is intended to inform and educate, not to recommend or endorse any financial product, investment or strategy. Please consider your own financial circumstances and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.
