Uneven monsoon rainfall and supply-side disruptions threaten rural household incomes in India this year, with experts suggesting the government may need to bolster support through the PM-KISAN scheme to safeguard farmers’ livelihoods amid potential production setbacks.
Rural household incomes in India could face pressure this year after uneven monsoon rainfall and supply-side disruptions affected the kharif season, according to C.S. Sekhar, professor of economics at the Institute of Economic Growth in Delhi. Speaking to ANI at the 5th Kautilya Economic Conclave in New Delhi, Sekhar said the government could consider raising support under PM-KISAN to help cushion farm households if earnings weaken.
Sekhar described PM-KISAN as an important safety net for farmers, alongside the rural employment guarantee programme, while stressing that the impact of such measures depends on how effectively they are delivered. The scheme, according to a recent Press Information Bureau statement, provides eligible farmer families with ₹6,000 a year through direct transfers into bank accounts. Since its launch in 2019, the programme has become one of the central pillars of farm support policy, with the government saying it is designed to supplement farmers’ financial needs and strengthen rural livelihoods.
The economist said the agricultural sector was likely to face some production losses on the supply side, pointing to rainfall deficits in some regions and disruptions in fertiliser availability. He said the national rainfall shortfall was around 10% to 12%, but that figure masked sharp differences between states and districts, with some areas receiving excess rain and others seeing a severe deficit. Even so, he argued that the shortfall was unlikely to trigger a major rise in food prices or a sharp drop in consumption because India holds ample buffer stocks of rice and wheat.
The broader policy backdrop remains focused on supporting farm incomes and rural demand. The Union Budget for 2024-25 kept the PM-KISAN allocation at ₹60,000 crore, while also increasing spending on irrigation through Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai, according to budget coverage reported by Moneycontrol. Sekhar said agricultural growth could end the year about one percentage point below last year’s pace, though a stronger rabi season may offset part of the weakness in kharif output. He noted that winter crops are largely irrigated, making them less exposed to rainfall shocks than the monsoon harvest.
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