India’s dependence on Russian crude oil reached a record high in July, as discounts and global disruptions keep Russian supplies vital despite geopolitical tensions and potential US tariffs.
India’s dependence on Russian crude oil climbed to a fresh high in July, with shipments from Russia accounting for 50.83% of the country’s imports, or 2.47 million barrels a day, according to trade data cited by The Hindu BusinessLine. That was 62.4% higher than a year earlier, although it was still 4.8% below June’s record level of 2.6 million bpd.
The sustained buying highlights how India’s refiners have continued to lean on discounted Russian barrels even after earlier attempts to trim purchases. Reuters has reported that refiners began scaling back in January to avoid higher US tariffs while New Delhi negotiated a trade agreement with Washington, but the flow of supplies has held up as disruptions in the Middle East, including tensions linked to the Iran war, kept Russian crude attractive.
The pressure on India’s import mix is also visible across the April-July period, when Russia’s share of crude supplies reached 43.25%, averaging more than 2 million bpd, trade data showed. That was up from about 37% a year earlier. Over the same stretch, the Middle East’s share slipped to about 30% from 43%, while Latin American crude rose to 12.7% from 3.5%, helped by bigger volumes from Brazil and Venezuela. The United Arab Emirates also overtook Iraq to become India’s second-largest supplier, with spot tenders boosting purchases.
Even so, the outlook is less certain. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, the US Senate has passed legislation that would impose tariffs of 100% on buyers of Russian oil, although the House of Representatives has yet to act. Kpler data, as reported by OilPrice and other outlets, suggests India’s July imports from Russia stayed close to record levels despite the expiry of a US waiver in June, underlining how difficult it may be for refiners to replace Russian crude quickly. India relies on imports for more than 90% of its crude needs, leaving it exposed to any further disruption in global oil trade.
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