India’s edible oil imports peaked in July amid shifting preferences from sunflower to palm and soybean oils, driven by Ukraine’s export challenges and domestic market dynamics, signalling a significant change in global oil trade patterns.
India’s appetite for edible oil surged in July as refiners rebuilt inventories ahead of the country’s August-to-November festival season, but the buying was concentrated in palm and soybean oil rather than sunflower oil. Data compiled by UkrAgroConsult and reported by Reuters showed imports rose to about 1.5 million tonnes, the highest in 10 months, with palm shipments climbing sharply and soybean volumes also posting a strong gain. Sunflower oil, by contrast, barely moved. Reuters said imports of sunflower oil rose just 4%, the weakest increase among the three major oils.
That shift matters for Ukraine because sunflower oil and meal are among its most important export earners. The industry association Ukroliyaprom has said the sector brings in more than 15% of Ukraine’s foreign currency earnings, making access to export markets vital at a time when the country is trying to keep hard-currency flows steady to support the war effort. Yet Reuters reported that India’s sunflower oil imports are expected to fall in August to their lowest level since February, after about 150,000 tonnes of cargo were delayed at Black Sea ports and buyers in southern India switched to soybean oil.
The disruption comes on top of a wider squeeze on Ukraine’s shipping capacity. Russian strikes on Chornomorsk in mid-July forced Kernel, Ukraine’s largest exporter, to halt operations at its terminals there, according to Reuters, while the country’s farmers’ union has estimated that the summer attacks have cut by about a third the capacity to move grain by sea. That is especially damaging because almost all of Ukraine’s agricultural exports leave by sea through a narrow cluster of Odesa ports, with no land route able to handle comparable volumes.
India’s own oil market is also shaping the import mix. Reuters quoted trader Rajesh Patel as saying the switch away from sunflower oil is only partly linked to the war, because soybean and palm oil remain relatively cheap and domestic crushing has slowed as India’s oilseed harvest shrinks. Patel told OFI that soybean oil imports could stay above 500,000 tonnes a month into the autumn. Business Standard earlier reported that India’s vegetable oil imports fell in June as the palm-oil discount narrowed, but cumulative arrivals for the oil year remained ahead of last year, underscoring how quickly demand can rebound when refiners need to restock.
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