A new report by Equirus suggests India could reach a $20 trillion economy by 2036 if it maintains rapid rupee appreciation and implements a comprehensive reform agenda spanning sectors from services to urban governance.
India could reach a $20 trillion economy by 2036, but only if it sustains far faster rupee growth than it has managed historically and pairs that with a prolonged rise in the currency’s value, according to a new report by domestic broker Equirus.
The report argues that the scale of the task is formidable. India’s economy, now worth about $3.7 trillion, would need to grow more than fivefold in just over a decade, implying nominal dollar growth of roughly 18 per cent a year. Equirus says that would require underlying rupee growth of about 14.2 per cent and annual rupee appreciation of 3 per cent to 3.6 per cent.
That target is far more aggressive than the path outlined in 2022 by Bibek Debroy, then chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. Speaking at the time, Debroy said India could reach $20 trillion by 2047 if it sustained annual growth of 7 per cent to 7.5 per cent over 25 years. Equirus’s projection compresses that ambition into a much shorter time frame, underlining both India’s recent momentum and the difficulty of maintaining it.
The brokerage says the composition of growth will matter as much as the pace. Services, already about 54 per cent of GDP, would need to become the dominant engine and rise to more than 65 per cent of output, climbing from about $2 trillion to over $11 trillion. Manufacturing, it argues, faces a tougher global backdrop, while agriculture’s share is likely to shrink as urbanisation continues.
To get there, Equirus sets out a 20-point reform agenda spanning the real economy, capital markets, human capital, services and urban governance. Among the proposals are bringing fuel into the goods and services tax system, setting minimum capital-spending requirements for states, listing the Railways, creating a sovereign fund, expanding private education, reviving private-sector research and development, deepening the corporate bond market and easing tax frictions that tie up working capital.
The report says removing advance tax could free up about ₹10 trillion in working capital, while a flat 5 per cent tax deducted at source could unlock another ₹13.4 trillion. It also argues that a national policy for global capability centres could expand the number of such hubs from more than 1,800 to 5,000, creating 20 million to 25 million jobs and adding $470 billion to $600 billion to the economy. Tourism could bring in another $21 billion a year in foreign exchange, according to the report.
Equirus estimates the package could generate annual direct gains of about ₹7.9 trillion against costs of roughly ₹3.4 trillion, leaving a net benefit of around ₹4.5 trillion. Its central conclusion is that the $20 trillion mark is not likely to come from any single reform, but from sustained execution across many fronts.
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