Despite a positive long-term outlook from some brokerage firms, ONGC’s latest quarterly report has prompted cautious revisions, highlighting near-term production and pricing pressures that temper investor enthusiasm amid diverse analyst opinions.
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has drawn mixed signals from brokerages after its latest quarterly update, but the overall tone remains constructive even as near-term production and pricing pressures weigh on sentiment. Prabhudas Lilladher cut its stance on the stock to “Accumulate” from “Buy” and set a target price of ₹297, citing concern about how durable volume growth will be. Jefferies, by contrast, stayed bullish, arguing that better pricing reforms and improving output can still drive a re-rating over time.
Prabhudas Lilladher pointed to only modest growth in standalone volumes, with oil sales rising 1.3% year on year and gas sales 1.1%, while both softened on a sequential basis in oil. It also highlighted the sharp fall in oil realisations to $61.6 a barrel from $72.6 a year earlier, which helped push revenue down 6.4% year on year to ₹315.5 billion and left EBITDA at ₹173.2 billion, down 8.7% year on year. The brokerage said ONGC expects standalone FY27 production of 21.0 million metric tonnes of oil and 21.5 billion cubic metres of gas.
Jefferies has taken a different view, keeping a “Buy” rating and maintaining an upbeat case for the stock even after trimming its target at points in recent commentary. The brokerage argues that pricing reforms, including better realisation on nomination field crude and changes to gas pricing, should support profitability, while production from the Krishna Godavari basin is expected to improve as new facilities ramp up. At the same time, Business Standard reported that ONGC has seen crude output from the KG-98/2 block fall further than initially hoped, prompting the company to bring in BP as a specialist adviser to troubleshoot the field and lift output.
That split view on ONGC sits within a broader brokerage pattern this earnings season: analysts are willing to look through short-term cost pressure or operational setbacks where they still see medium-term growth intact. Trade Brains also cited positive views on Britannia, Ventive Hospitality, Neuland Laboratories and PNB Housing Finance, underscoring how the market is still rewarding companies that can show execution, even if the latest quarter was uneven.
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