UBS remains bullish on gold, predicting prices could reach $5,000 an ounce by 2027, amid shifting short-term targets and ongoing demand from central banks and investors.
UBS is still betting on gold, even as the bank has trimmed some of its shorter-term targets. In the latest note cited by eDaily, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, the group’s chief investment officer, said there are still enough forces in place to keep the rally alive and forecast that bullion could move towards $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2027. The call came after gold futures rose more than 4% in five trading sessions, helped by buying from Chinese investors and fresh inflows into gold exchange-traded funds. According to the report, UBS also pointed to intervention by US and Japanese authorities to steady the yen as a factor that reduced fears of heavy selling in Treasuries and limited pressure on bond yields.
That outlook is more cautious than some of UBS’s earlier targets this year. Investing.com reported in May that the bank cut its gold price forecasts by as much as $900 an ounce after stronger US data and a later timetable for Federal Reserve easing pushed rate-cut expectations into 2027. Kitco later said UBS lowered its year-end 2026 forecast to $5,500 an ounce from $5,900, citing elevated Treasury yields and a firm dollar. A separate UBS research note published by Finvaulta in June still projected $4,600 an ounce by the end of 2026 and $5,200 by June 2027, showing that the bank has kept a broadly bullish medium-term view even as the path has shifted.
UBS says the main near-term risks are higher oil prices and a more hawkish Fed, both of which could keep borrowing costs elevated and weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold. Higher market rates tend to strengthen the appeal of bonds relative to bullion, which can cap demand for the metal. But the bank expects inflation to ease gradually and the Fed to hold rates steady this year before moving back towards easing in 2027, a shift it believes would pressure real yields and the dollar while supporting investment demand for gold.
Central-bank buying remains another pillar of support. UBS says official-sector demand has become structural, helping to put a floor under prices even when private investors step back. That broader backdrop comes after gold surged more than 65% last year and has moved mostly sideways so far this year, according to the eDaily report, leaving UBS with a long-term bullish stance despite its shorter-term forecast cuts.
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