Trump’s Russian oil pause clears way for possible US-India trade deal

Washington has suspended threatened tariffs over India’s Russian crude purchases, removing a major obstacle as Marco Rubio visits for talks that could produce a trade agreement this week.

Donald Trump has unexpectedly softened his approach to India over purchases of Russian oil, easing the way for a trade deal that Washington and New Delhi are now said to be close to finalising. The move has cleared one of the biggest obstacles in the negotiations and raised the prospect that the agreement could be signed as soon as this week, according to Reuters.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due to spend two days in India, with stops in Mumbai and Jamnagar, where he is expected to hold talks with senior officials and business leaders. Reuters and Business Standard reported that the trip is designed to push forward a wide-ranging commercial accord and to deepen energy ties between the two countries, even as Washington continues to debate how hard it should press Russia’s oil customers.

Among Rubio’s planned meetings is a discussion with India’s foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, as well as with Mukesh Ambani, the billionaire chairman of Reliance Industries. The company operates the giant refinery complex in Jamnagar, the world’s largest, giving the visit an added energy dimension at a time when oil supplies remain central to the wider talks.

The backdrop is a sharp shift in White House policy. In September, Trump signed legislation allowing tariffs of up to 100% on imports from the five biggest buyers of Russian crude. India ranks second on that list after China, leaving it exposed to possible penalties. But last Friday, Trump paused the main provisions of the measure, including the punitive tariffs that could have hit Indian goods. The decision drew criticism from both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, who want stronger economic pressure on Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

Rubio has defended the more cautious line, arguing that countries such as India cannot simply abandon Russian oil overnight. Speaking to reporters on Sunday, he said India had diversified its energy mix but still relied heavily on Russian supplies because moving from one source to another is not straightforward. He also said India remains an important strategic partner for the United States. India imports more than 85% of the crude oil it needs, making it highly dependent on global energy markets.

The Trump administration has opened a 60-day review of the restrictions linked to Russian energy sales, a period in which officials will assess the possible economic effects of new tariffs and sanctions before deciding whether to proceed. Reuters reported that the pause has removed a major barrier to the trade talks with India, while also fuelling political tension in Washington over how to balance commercial interests, energy prices and the broader push to squeeze Moscow.

The controversy is sharpened by an awkward contradiction: the same administration that has pressed India to curb Russian crude purchases has also agreed a fresh deal with Russia for diesel imports, reportedly aimed at helping to bring down domestic fuel prices before the US midterm elections on 3 November. That deal, and the tariff pause, have intensified debate inside Washington over the future of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector just as the India talks approach a possible breakthrough.

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