India’s power sector continues to show broad-based momentum into the July-September quarter, driven by increased electricity demand, higher plant utilisation, and strong performances from key utilities and developers, signalling a resilient earnings outlook.
India’s power sector is heading into the July-September quarter with momentum that looks unusually broad-based, as stronger electricity demand, firmer plant utilisation and robust execution across listed utilities support earnings across the chain. JM Financial said overall energy demand rose 11% year on year to 499 billion units in the period, while peak load climbed 18% to 270 GW, giving generators and suppliers a favourable operating backdrop.
Thermal plants appear to have done much of the heavy lifting. JM Financial said the all-India plant load factor reached 65%, helping offset softer renewable output and a 12% decline in hydro generation tied to El Niño-related conditions. That demand profile is central to the brokerage’s upbeat outlook for NTPC, India’s largest power producer, which reported power generation growth of 12.93% year on year to 117.9 billion units in the quarter, according to company updates carried by PV Magazine India and Business Standard. The company also said coal dispatch rose 28.45% and power trading volumes increased 22%, underscoring how conventional generation remained critical to meeting higher load.
On JM Financial’s estimates, NTPC’s revenue should rise 12% to ₹50,339.7 crore, while adjusted profit after tax could jump 66% to ₹5,877.7 crore. Adani Power is forecast to benefit from higher generation and better plant load factors, with revenue expected to increase 29% to ₹17,334.4 crore and adjusted profit up 13% to ₹3,349.1 crore. Tata Power is also seen posting a strong quarter, with revenue projected to climb 28% to ₹20,167 crore and adjusted profit to surge 81% to ₹1,305.3 crore. That would build on a solid prior quarter, when Tata Power reported revenue of ₹18,898 crore and net profit of ₹1,401 crore, helped by renewables, transmission and solar manufacturing.
The improving demand backdrop is not limited to generators. JM Financial expects JSW Energy to post a 19% rise in revenue, while ACME Solar could more than double adjusted profit, helped by battery storage arbitrage in the merchant market. The brokerage said developers with battery energy storage portfolios are still able to extract outsized gains from short-term price spreads. In the trading segment, Indian Energy Exchange is expected to show steady gains, though recent Business Standard reporting pointed to a sharp rise in traded volumes and power prices in the quarter, suggesting a firmer pricing environment. On the supply side, Bharat Heavy Electricals and Suzlon Energy are both expected to deliver double-digit sales growth, with Suzlon’s deliveries reaching 660 MW during the quarter, according to JM Financial. The broader message from the sector preview is clear: with demand still rising and capacity being absorbed efficiently, earnings strength in India’s power sector is likely to remain intact in the near term.
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