Indian markets are set for a firmer start amid falling oil prices and ongoing regional uncertainties, with analysts highlighting a cautious recovery driven by global cues and domestic factors.
Indian equities are set to open with a firmer bias on Thursday, 24 September, as investors weigh softer Brent crude prices against continuing uncertainty in West Asia. The move comes after benchmark indices extended their recovery in the previous session, with falling oil prices offering some relief to traders who had been bracing for a longer stretch of geopolitical disruption. Market participants are still likely to treat overseas developments as the main driver of sentiment in the near term, alongside foreign fund flows and broader global risk appetite.
According to analysts cited by GoodReturns, the recent pullback in Brent crude, which has slipped below the $100-a-barrel level, has helped stabilise sentiment in Indian markets. Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services said domestic equities could continue their gradual recovery if hopes of easing tensions in the conflict zone persist, though he added that crude prices, foreign institutional activity and global cues would remain key influences. The backdrop is still fragile: Axios reported last week that investors have been increasingly pricing in a longer period of elevated energy costs because of the war in Iran, while refinery and pipeline disruptions have kept pressure on fuel markets even as spot oil prices have eased.
For the Nifty, Bajaj Broking Research said the index finished near the day’s high in the previous session and formed a bullish candle, although the pattern still points more to consolidation than to a decisive trend reversal. The brokerage said the market is recovering from an oversold position and that stock-specific moves are likely to matter more than broad index leadership. It sees support at 23,285, with a break lower potentially exposing 23,116, while resistance is expected in the 23,600 to 23,650 range. A sustained move above that zone, the firm said, would be needed to signal that the broader downtrend may be losing momentum.
Bank Nifty is showing a similar pattern of cautious stabilisation. Bajaj Broking Research said the index has held within the range of a large bearish candle formed last Tuesday and is still anchored above 56,000, which sits near the lower end of its broader 12-week band. The brokerage put near-term trading limits at 55,700 to 57,000, warning that a clear break below the support zone could open the way to 55,200 and then 54,800. The Indian set-up also mirrors a mixed global tone: AP News reported that US stocks ended last week unevenly as bond yields and oil prices swung, while a separate AP report on 17 September noted that falling oil prices had helped fuel a rebound in Wall Street shares.
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