NSE's IPO valuation sparks debate over derivative dependence and regulatory risks

India’s National Stock Exchange launches its long-awaited public offering, unveiling a valuation that highlights both its dominant position and the growing influence of derivatives trading amid regulatory shifts.

NSE’s long-awaited public offering has arrived with a valuation that sits between familiar markers and fresh doubts. According to Finshots’ lead article, the National Stock Exchange is entering the market through an offer for sale, so none of the roughly ₹22,500 crore raised will flow into the company itself. The issue price tops out at ₹1,785 a share, implying a valuation of about ₹4.42 lakh crore, below where shares had traded in the unlisted market last year.

That lower price has not made the deal look cheap. Finshots notes that NSE earned ₹10,302 crore in profit in FY26, which works out to a price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 43 times. Business Standard says that is still below BSE’s multiple of about 54 times, even though NSE is far larger by revenue, profit and trading volume. Mint adds that, on FY27 estimates, NSE’s IPO valuation is about 30% lower than BSE’s, yet the comparison does not fully settle the question of value.

The reason is that NSE’s earnings engine is both powerful and exposed. A large share of revenue comes from transaction charges, with options trading doing much of the heavy lifting. Finshots says equity options alone contributed ₹9,998 crore in FY26, or 60% of operating revenue. Value Research Online also points to the same dependence, warning that the exchange’s valuation is difficult to assess without considering how much of the business rests on derivatives.

That dependence matters because regulation has already changed the economics. SEBI tightened index derivatives rules in 2024 and again later, including changes to contract sizes and weekly expiries. Finshots says those moves helped push down derivatives volumes and shaved transaction-charge revenue in FY26. The article also notes that NSE’s profit fell 15% year on year, even as BSE’s rose sharply. Business Standard frames the valuation gap between the two exchanges as a reflection of BSE’s improving operating leverage and room to grow in cash equities, while NSE already dominates that field.

Still, NSE remains a highly profitable market infrastructure business with strong margins and limited direct rivals. Finshots says revenue rose from ₹14,780 crore in FY24 to ₹16,601 crore in FY26, while operating EBITDA margins remained exceptionally high. It also points to a stronger first quarter of FY27, when revenue rose 13% and transaction charges climbed 15%, suggesting the exchange may be adapting to the new regulatory setup rather than entering a lasting slump.

That leaves investors with a familiar dilemma: NSE is not an ordinary company, and its worth cannot be judged only against a local peer or a single earnings multiple. Business Standard says analysts see value in the exchange’s franchise strength, brand and central role in India’s capital markets, even if the issue is not cheap. But the same concentration that makes NSE so lucrative also makes it vulnerable to rule changes. The IPO, then, is less a simple bargain hunt than a test of how much investors are willing to pay for a dominant business whose future growth may depend on how derivatives volumes recover.

Disclaimer: This article is intended to inform and educate, not to recommend or endorse any financial product, investment or strategy. Please consider your own financial circumstances and seek professional advice where appropriate before making financial decisions.