Nykredit's early stake in Dr. Reddy’s highlights investor confidence ahead of supply disruptions

Danish asset manager Nykredit disclosed a modest stake in Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories just before the Indian drugmaker faced setbacks due to a semaglutide supply issue, raising questions about investor foresight amidst operational turmoil.

A Danish asset manager, Nykredit A/S, disclosed in a US regulatory filing that it held 137,993 American depositary receipts in Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories at the end of June, a stake valued at $1,999,519. The position, set out in the group’s Form 13F for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, offers a backward-looking snapshot of institutional interest in the Indian drugmaker just before concerns over its semaglutide business began to dominate the story around the stock.

The filing, submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission on 13 August and signed by First Vice President Jens-Kristian Bagger Jensen, shows Nykredit reporting 1,945 holdings with a total value of $31.8bn. Dr. Reddy’s was a very small part of that book, amounting to roughly 0.006% of the reported portfolio by value. The document also lists Nykredit Bank A/S and Sparinvest S.A. as other included managers, and the Dr. Reddy’s line was reported under those manager codes in the information table.

What has changed since that quarter-end disclosure is the operating backdrop. Reuters reported in July that Dr. Reddy’s had warned semaglutide supply disruption could spill into global markets while it continued with regulatory work in Brazil, Turkey and Mexico. The company said its generic version would remain unavailable in India and disrupted in Canada until at least late October after an impurity issue in the active ingredient halted new batch production. Reuters said the setback forced Dr. Reddy’s to cut its fiscal-year semaglutide sales target to 6 million to 7 million pens from 12 million.

That warning was later tempered by management’s recovery timetable. In a Reuters report carried by The Economic Times, chief executive Erez Israeli said Dr. Reddy’s expected to resume semaglutide supplies by November after identifying the root cause of the quality problem, with corrective measures planned by September. According to that report, the company said the financial hit was linked to a provision tied to the semaglutide active pharmaceutical ingredient, but it still maintained its growth and profitability guidance for fiscal 2027. In an earlier post-earnings call cited by Reuters, Israeli added: “When we come back, we will need to allocate the output that we can. It may affect other markets in that respect.”

The disruption marked a sharp turn from the optimism Dr. Reddy’s had presented only weeks earlier. In a 29 April company release filed through the National Stock Exchange of India archives, the group said it had received a Notice of Compliance from Health Canada for its generic semaglutide injection, becoming the first company to secure market authorisation for the product in Canada and doing so ahead of the regulator’s review target date. The company said launch preparations were under way, with finished product manufacturing handled by OneSource Specialty Pharma Limited and the active ingredient produced in-house. In the same release, Israeli called the approval “a significant milestone in our GLP-1 journey”.

The July results showed why investors reacted so sharply when that momentum stalled. Business Standard reported that Dr. Reddy’s first-quarter profit for FY27 fell 68.7% year on year to Rs 443.5 crore, while revenue declined 5.5% to Rs 8,099.8 crore. The newspaper said the earnings drop reflected the end of lenalidomide sales, a Rs 240 crore semaglutide inventory provision, and higher freight and solvent costs. It also reported that the shares dropped as much as 8.7% at the open to Rs 1,080.05, a fresh 52-week low, before trimming losses to trade 2.8% lower at Rs 1,149.75 by 9.32am.

Brokerage reaction has remained cautious. Business Standard said Elara Capital cut its FY27 to FY29 core earnings estimates by 7% to 29%, lowered its target price to Rs 1,222 from Rs 1,283 and kept a Reduce rating. The brokerage said North America, Europe and Russia were weak, although India and the rest of the world partly offset the decline. That scepticism helps explain why Nykredit’s filing is notable less for the size of the position than for the timing: the Danish manager’s June-end purchase put it into Dr. Reddy’s before the semaglutide setback was fully reflected in company guidance and market sentiment.

For now, the investment case rests heavily on whether Dr. Reddy’s can restore supply in the timeframe management has outlined and revive a product it had presented as a major growth engine in India and selected overseas markets. The June filing shows one institutional buyer was willing to take exposure before the turbulence emerged; the next test for the company is whether a November restart, if achieved, is enough to rebuild confidence in a business that had only recently won a prized first-mover approval in Canada.

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