Indian stocks showed a tentative bounce on Monday as global equities rallied on easing US rate hike fears, but persistent concerns over high crude prices and geopolitical tensions continue to cast a shadow over the recovery.
Indian equities go into Monday’s session with a bounce on the scoreboard but little sign that the pressure has truly lifted. Friday’s rise broke a four-day slide in the Nifty 50, yet the benchmark still logged a fourth straight weekly fall – its longest losing streak in five months – as oil surged above $96 a barrel and renewed US-Iran hostilities kept investors wary of another inflation shock.
The Nifty ended Friday at 23,897.70, up 0.10%, while the Sensex added 362.57 points, or 0.48%, to 76,515.43. Over the week, however, the two indices fell about 1.2% and 1% respectively. Telangana Today, carrying IANS, said the market remained below key moving averages despite the one-day recovery, underlining a near-term technical picture that still looked weak and corrective.
Business Standard’s live coverage showed how that rebound was built. GIFT Nifty pointed to a firmer open at around 24,044 before the bell, and in pre-open trade the benchmark was indicated 37.45 points higher. By 9:18 am the Sensex was up 496.99 points at 76,649.85 and the Nifty had climbed to 23,930.60, helped by a rally in global equities after comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller eased fears of another US rate rise. NDTV Profit noted that Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.65%, South Korea’s Kospi 1.23% and Kosdaq 1.18%, with Hong Kong also signalling a stronger start.
Even so, the tone never looked carefree. Traders spent the session waiting for US non-farm payrolls and fresh inflation signals while watching every move in crude. Business Standard reported October oil futures at $96.12 a barrel early in the day, and Telangana Today said Brent rose more than 8% over the week while WTI gained more than 9%, with concern centring on whether conflict around the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt supplies. Ahead of the open, Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking told NDTV Profit, “Given the prevailing combination of elevated crude prices, geopolitical uncertainty and weak market momentum, we recommend maintaining a cautious, stock-specific approach with a strong focus on risk management,”.
The rebound was selective rather than universal. The Indian Awaaz said metal and private banking shares led the advance, with Tata Steel, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank lending the benchmarks support. Earlier in the session, Business Standard listed TCS, Tech Mahindra and Wipro among the strongest Nifty stocks, while another Business Standard market update said IT and realty shares outperformed and pharma, consumer durables and auto shares lagged.
Breadth figures also suggested a market that was better than the headline indices implied, though not one in full risk-on mode. The Indian Awaaz counted 2,016 advancing stocks on the NSE against 1,517 declines and 115 unchanged. In morning trade, Business Standard put the wider count at 2,384 shares rising, 903 falling and 205 unchanged. Broader gauges stayed mixed throughout the session, with Business Standard showing mid-caps little changed and small-caps modestly firmer.
Currency and derivatives markets offered a calmer backdrop. Basis Point Insight said the rupee finished virtually steady at 94.4850 to the dollar, near an over-two-month high, supported by strong inflows and Reserve Bank of India intervention; its report said the central bank’s one-off measures have exceeded $136 billion. The same report put September Nifty futures at 24,048, a premium of 150.30 points to cash, while India VIX fell 6.50% to 10.60. Business Standard added that foreign portfolio investors sold Rs 2,345.87 crore on 3 September, while domestic institutions bought Rs 4,977.46 crore, and the 10-year government bond yield edged up to 6.967%.
For Monday, that leaves the market with a simple test: whether a rally born of softer Treasury yields and a Wall Street rebound can outlast the drag from expensive oil and geopolitics. Basis Point Insight said traders remained cautious into the auction and kept their focus on West Asia, while Telangana Today argued that strong domestic data had not been enough to offset external pressures. Unless crude cools and global rates fears ease further, Friday’s gain may look more like a pause in a bruising month than the start of a clean turn higher.
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