India’s below-average monsoon rainfall is expected to tighten domestic pulse supplies, prompting increased Canadian shipments of peas and lentils as crop forecasts signal potential declines and import demand rises.
India’s weak monsoon is set to tighten the pulse market and could boost Canadian shipments of peas and lentils, according to analysts tracking the crop outlook.
The India Meteorological Department said rainfall from June 1 through August 31 totalled 603.7 millimetres, 13.8% below normal, and it expects September to remain below average. AgPulse Analytica analyst Gaurav Jain said the shortfall is already weighing on the outlook for kharif, or autumn, crops, especially pigeon peas, which matter to Canada because lentils are often used as a substitute when supplies run short.
India’s government has pencilled in pigeon pea production of 4.02 million tonnes this year, up from 3.59 million tonnes last year. Jain is more cautious, estimating output at 3.2 million tonnes versus 3.82 million tonnes a year earlier. He said the gap would be difficult to close through inventories or imports alone, even though India imported a record amount of pigeon peas in the first half of 2026.
That same pressure could carry into lentils. AgPulse is forecasting more than 1.6 million tonnes of lentil imports in 2026-27, close to the 1.68 million-tonne record set in 2023-24. Trade data cited by India Global News show that India’s pulse imports in the first half of 2026 dipped slightly overall, but purchases of tur, masoor and yellow peas rose even as chickpea and urad imports fell.
The bigger risk for the market is that poor rainfall could also leave reservoir levels and soil moisture below normal heading into the winter crop cycle. If winter rains disappoint, rabi acreage and yields may suffer, with chickpeas particularly vulnerable. Analysts say Canadian yellow peas could benefit if domestic shortages persist and the Black Sea route remains disrupted, while a smaller Australian crop has already tightened supply.
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