India’s monsoon in September could determine the fate of the 2026 kharif harvest and influence inflation, as regional rainfall deficits threaten crop yields amid shifting farm patterns and uneven reservoir levels.
September has emerged as the decisive month for India’s 2026 monsoon, with the fate of kharif crops now hinging on whether rainfall improves before the season closes. NDTV Profit reported that the nationwide deficit was still 13% below normal on 27 August, a sharp reversal from last year’s 5% surplus at the same point. The India Meteorological Department had already signalled a weaker season, projecting rainfall at about 90% of the long-period average as El Niño conditions gathered pace, and the year has broadly unfolded in line with that warning.
The national figure, however, hides wide regional differences. UBI’s research team said the more important issue is where the rain falls, not just the all-India total, because crop performance depends on timing and location as much as volume. The north-west and central belts, both crucial for agricultural output, are still short of normal rainfall, while the south and east have fared worse. State-level data are even more troubling in places such as Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, where sharp deficits threaten both staple grains and the wider farm economy.
Sowing has held up better than the rainfall numbers might suggest. NDTV Profit said kharif acreage had reached 105.7 million hectares by 21 August, leaving the season only 1.5% behind last year after a much deeper gap earlier in July. Even so, the crop mix is changing: pulses, cotton and oilseeds are gaining share, while rice, coarse cereals and sugarcane are losing ground. That shift matters because it can alter both farm incomes and food supply patterns later in the year.
There is some cushion in reservoir storage, though it is uneven. The Central Water Commission’s tracked reservoirs were at 64% of live capacity on 20 August, up from 44% at the end of July, but still well below last year’s 78%. The northern region is lagging badly, which could matter for the rabi season after the monsoon ends. UBI has held its FY27 consumer price inflation forecast at 5%, but said a firmer El Niño could push food inflation higher and lift the projection to 5.5% or more. Business Standard has separately noted that a weak monsoon can feed through to lower farm output, softer rural demand and pressure on Reserve Bank of India policy, while S&P Global Ratings warned that farm incomes, consumption and sectors tied to rural spending could all feel the strain if rains stay poor.
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