The USDA predicts India’s cotton output for 2026/27 at 24.5 million bales, citing below-normal rainfall and dry weather risks, with domestic demand supporting prices amid a tighter global supply outlook.
The United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service in New Delhi is forecasting India’s cotton output at 24.5 million 480-pound bales in the 2026/27 marketing year, with production drawn from 11.5 million hectares. The estimate reflects a modestly weaker yield outlook of 464 kilogrammes per hectare, as the agency points to below-normal rainfall through August and September, especially in western and central parts of the country.
The forecast comes even as India’s cumulative monsoon deficit narrowed to 12% below normal by August 12. Planting was still running 2% behind last year’s pace, and reservoir storage stood at 60% of capacity, underscoring the risk that dry weather could curb final output.
Domestic demand is expected to remain firm. The USDA unit raised mill use to 26.2 million 480-pound bales, citing textile and apparel export orders. Higher minimum support prices and a tighter crop outlook are also seen supporting lint prices, which could push mills to rely more heavily on imports and duty-free export mechanisms if the current general tariff exemption ends after October 31.
That would leave less cotton available for export, while more of the crop is channelled into higher-value manufacturing at home. In its August Cotton and Wool Outlook, the USDA’s Economic Research Service also projected global cotton production at 117.6 million bales for 2026/27, down 4% from the previous year, with world ending stocks set to fall and prices likely to edge higher.
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