Ashika Institutional Equities turns bullish on India’s defence stocks amid a record global increase in military expenditure, highlighting a shift from import reliance to export ambitions supported by rising global demand and technological advancements.
Ashika Institutional Equities has turned positive on India’s defence names, arguing that a global rearmament cycle could keep the sector’s rally going for years. The view comes as the Nifty India Defence index has risen 27% so far this year and about 30% over the past 12 months, extending a multi-year advance driven by the government’s push for self-reliance, higher spending, indigenisation and stronger exports.
The broker’s case rests on a sharp rise in global military outlays. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said worldwide defence spending hit a record $2.887 trillion in 2025, the 11th straight year of growth, with Europe and Asia accounting for much of the increase. SIPRI said the military burden rose to 2.5% of global GDP, underscoring how geopolitical tensions and long procurement cycles are reshaping budgets across major economies.
Ashika says that backdrop should support demand for advanced systems, precision weapons, defence electronics and newer technologies over the next decade. For India, the brokerage sees a structural shift from a heavy importer of weapons to a manufacturing base with export ambition. Defence exports have already climbed at a compound annual growth rate of about 40% since FY14, reaching ₹38,400 crore, according to the brokerage’s research note.
The firm expects that figure to rise further, projecting exports above ₹75,000 crore by FY30, compared with the government’s target of more than ₹50,000 crore by FY29. It pointed to an active order pipeline that includes Akash missile exports to Armenia worth ₹6,000 crore and BrahMos systems to the Philippines worth ₹3,200 crore, while also citing opportunities in Vietnam and Indonesia. Ashika said its preferred segments are defence electronics, missiles and precision-guided weapons, unmanned aerial systems, space defence, and electronic warfare, but warned that delays in procurement, technology shifts, execution risks and rich valuations remain key hazards.
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