While Castrol India shows technical signs of resilience, analyst Vishnu Kant Upadhyay recommends building a fresh long position in Usha Martin, signalling a shift in near-term investment focus.
Castrol India is edging higher on the charts, but technical analyst Vishnu Kant Upadhyay is treating it as a stock to hold rather than a candidate for an abrupt exit. In an August 18 analysis, Upadhyay said the lubricants maker was “looking slightly positive” and remained above a rising trendline support. He advised investors to stay with the trade as long as the share price holds above Rs 184, using that level as a stop loss.
The stock is also sitting near its 21-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, a sign that it is at a key technical juncture. According to the analysis, if that support area continues to hold, Castrol could first move towards Rs 194 and then Rs 206. Stock data available on July 31 showed Castrol India changing hands at about Rs 185.25 to Rs 185.33, with a market capitalisation of roughly Rs 183.23 billion and a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 19.11.
Upadhyay was less supportive of the idea of simply swapping Castrol for another name. He said moving from a lubricant company into Usha Martin, which makes steel wire ropes and speciality products, or into Suzlon Energy, which is tied to renewable energy equipment, would amount to changing the investment thesis rather than making a straightforward replacement. That distinction matters because the investor’s original question framed the choice as a simple rotation trade.
Among the alternatives, Usha Martin emerged as the stronger fresh idea. Upadhyay said the stock was “technically looking quite positive” and suggested investors could “build a fresh long position in Usha Martin at the current market rate”. Market data from late July showed Usha Martin trading near Rs 511.90, with S&P Global analyst polls pointing to a consensus “Strong Buy” rating and an average target price of Rs 603, implying further upside. Suzlon did not receive the same level of detail in the segment, leaving Usha Martin as the clearer near-term chart pick while Castrol remains a hold for existing investors.
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