As India grapples with a looming rainfall deficit and an evolving weather system over the Bay of Bengal, experts warn the monsoon season may end with below-normal rainfall, impacting crops and water resources across the country.
The southwest monsoon may already have delivered most of its useful rain for India this year, even as a fresh weather system moves in over the Bay of Bengal. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, the current spell is likely to keep East and North-East India wet through the end of August, while much of the rest of the country sees weaker showers and a gradually worsening rainfall gap.
The latest system is expected to form over the north-west Bay of Bengal and nearby coasts before tracking into West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar. The India Meteorological Department said on Monday that the depression was near Kolkata and likely to move inland over the next two days. The agency also warned of isolated extremely heavy rain in Odisha and West Bengal, followed by Jharkhand, with heavy falls more broadly across the North-East over the coming week. Even so, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts expects the broader monsoon pattern to stay patchy, with the eastern burst fading by the end of August.
That matters because the national rainfall picture is already uneven. The Hindu BusinessLine said India’s all-India deficit stood at 13% on Sunday, with East and North-East India 27% below normal and the south peninsula 21% short. North-West India was also lagging, though by a smaller 12%, while Central India remained close to normal. Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Punjab and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and Rayalaseema are among the subdivisions facing some of the sharpest shortfalls.
The broader seasonal outlook is also turning less encouraging. The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal rainfall for the full June-to-September monsoon, citing the growing influence of El Niño, a warming of the central and eastern Pacific that often suppresses rain over India. Other reports have said the department places the odds of a below-normal season at 84%, with rainfall seen at about 90% of the long-period average. If that plays out, the monsoon withdrawal could begin in North-West India around mid-September, leaving the country with only a slim chance of meaningful recovery outside the eastern states.
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