A new report suggests India could become a $20 trillion economy by 2036 if it accelerates rupee growth, stabilises the currency, and implements broad reforms across key sectors including taxation and infrastructure.
India could become a $20 trillion economy by 2036, but only if it combines faster rupee-based growth with a steadier currency and a broad reform push, according to a report from Equirus. The domestic brokerage said the country would need underlying rupee growth of about 14.2% and annual rupee appreciation of 3% to 3.6% to reach that dollar-denominated goal, a pace that would mark a sharp step-up from India’s historical trend.
The target is ambitious. Equirus said India has already moved from independence to its first $2 trillion of GDP over 67 years, then roughly doubled output after 2014. But taking the economy from about $3.7 trillion today to $20 trillion by 2036 would mean expanding to about 5.5 times its current size and sustaining nominal dollar growth of roughly 18% a year, far above the 10% to 11% pace seen over the long run.
The brokerage sees services as the main engine of that expansion. It said the sector, which accounts for around 54% of GDP today, would need to rise to more than 65% and grow from about $2 trillion to above $11 trillion. Manufacturing, by contrast, may face a tougher global backdrop as trade protection rises, while agriculture’s share is likely to keep falling as urbanisation accelerates. That view echoes broader long-term forecasts from other analysts, including S&P Global, which has argued that capital formation, services and manufacturing will shape India’s growth path in the coming decade.
To get there, Equirus proposed a 20-point reform programme spanning taxation, infrastructure, capital markets, education and urban governance. Among the ideas were bringing fuel into the goods and services tax system, enforcing minimum state capital spending, listing the Railways, setting up a sovereign fund and deepening corporate bond markets. The report also argued that removing advance tax could free roughly Rs 10 trillion in working capital, while a flat 5% tax deducted at source could unlock another Rs 13.4 trillion. It said a national policy for global capability centres could help lift the number of such hubs from more than 1,800 to 5,000, creating as many as 20 million to 25 million jobs and adding $470 billion to $600 billion in economic value, while tourism could bring in about $21 billion in annual foreign exchange. Equirus estimated the package would generate annual direct gains of about Rs 7.9 trillion against costs of roughly Rs 3.4 trillion, leaving a net benefit of Rs 4.5 trillion, but said execution across many fronts would matter more than any single policy change.
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