Indian equities remain cautious as USD pressure and global tensions influence market outlook

Indian stock markets closed the week with mixed results amid global uncertainties, higher crude prices, and cautious investors, while foreign inflows persisted and the rupee weakened against the dollar.

Indian equities spent the week in consolidation as investors balanced firm first-quarter corporate results against higher crude prices, lingering geopolitical tension and uncertainty around the US Federal Reserve’s next move. According to the market note in The Hans India, the Sensex fell 489.92 points, or 0.62%, to 78,009.25, while the Nifty declined 204.65 points, or 0.83%, to 24,366.

The broader market was mixed. The Nifty Smallcap 100 slipped 0.65% over the week, while the Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.5%, suggesting that investors remained selective rather than broadly risk-averse. Foreign institutional investors bought equities for a third straight week, adding shares worth Rs1,228.24 crore, while domestic institutions continued to provide support with purchases of Rs9,285.63 crore.

The rupee also came under pressure, ending the week 22 paise weaker at Rs95.43 against the dollar after trading in a narrow range of Rs95.17 to Rs95.44. The Hans India said elevated crude prices and geopolitical anxiety were the main drags on the currency. In a similar vein, market reporting from August 2023 showed that higher oil prices, inflation concerns and rising US bond yields had already begun to slow foreign portfolio inflows into Indian equities.

Global risks remain in focus. Investors are waiting for minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting for clues on the path of US rates, after softer US retail sales dented expectations of another hike next month. The week also ended with a fresh jolt from the Middle East after comments attributed to Donald Trump raised concern over the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments.

Domestically, traders are watching whether the current range-bound pattern gives way to a clearer trend. Derivatives activity remained subdued, with options positioning pointing to 24,400 as a key Nifty level and resistance seen in the 24,600 to 24,700 zone. The note also said market breadth has narrowed since early August, even as sectors such as media, capital markets and consumer durables outperformed, while cement, metal and FMCG lagged. Analysts cited in the report said the combination of strong earnings and a challenging external backdrop should keep stock-picking central in the weeks ahead.

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