India’s fuel stability persists amid escalating US-Iran tensions and volatile global crude markets

Retail petrol and diesel rates across major Indian cities remained steady on 16 August despite a sharp weekly rise in crude oil prices, amidst ongoing US-Iran tensions and recent domestic tax adjustments aimed at stabilising supply.

Fuel prices across India were broadly unchanged on Sunday, 16 August, even as crude oil posted a sharp weekly advance, driven by renewed concern over the Strait of Hormuz and the wider confrontation between the United States and Iran. Brent crude settled 1.67% higher at $88.52 a barrel on Friday and rose almost 6% over the week, according to Bloomberg, but retail petrol and diesel rates in major Indian cities stayed at their current levels. In Delhi, petrol remained at ₹102.12 a litre and diesel at ₹95.20, while Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and other major centres also showed no fresh revision.

The stability reflects the way India’s oil marketing companies review pump prices each day, with changes, when they come, typically taking effect from 6 am. In Delhi, retail fuel prices are now far above the levels seen in August 2023, when they were still broadly unchanged nationwide, underscoring how global crude trends and domestic tax adjustments can eventually feed through to consumers even when the day-to-day price mechanism appears flat.

Markets are also watching the diplomatic stand-off around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy routes. Reuters has reported that messages are still being passed between Tehran and Washington through regional intermediaries, while Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said on Telegram that any understanding with Oman would not amount to the reopening of the strait. Separate reporting has described continued attacks on vessels in the waterway and US warnings to ships to stay clear of Iranian waters, keeping pressure on energy markets.

At home, the Indian government has recently adjusted export duties on petroleum products, lowering levies on diesel and aviation turbine fuel while setting the tax on petrol exports to zero for the second half of August. The revisions, issued by the finance ministry’s revenue department, were meant to protect domestic supply at a time of unsettled global markets. Economists have warned that any major reduction in India’s purchases of discounted Russian crude could raise the country’s annual import bill by billions of dollars and add to inflation and external account pressure.

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