A NITI Aayog report reveals India’s chemicals sector could see exports soaring to $81 billion by 2030, driven by domestic growth, policy reforms, and technological advancements, with speciality chemicals leading the way.
India’s chemicals industry could be headed for a sharp expansion by 2030, with a NITI Aayog report saying exports may rise to as much as $81 billion as the country works to deepen domestic manufacturing, cut import reliance and move towards becoming a net-zero importer.
According to the report, the export opportunity breaks down into $45 billion from speciality chemicals, $5 billion to $10 billion from inorganic chemicals and $26 billion from petrochemicals. That would lift the country’s role in the global chemicals value chain and reinforce its standing as a major producer and exporter.
The report said the industry would need to sustain consumption growth of 10% to 11% a year over the next five fiscal years, alongside production growth of about 14% a year, to reach those ambitions. It also projected that domestic chemicals consumption could climb to $290 billion to $310 billion by fiscal 2030, equal to about 5% to 6% of global demand.
That growth would require a major increase in local output. NITI Aayog estimated chemical production would need to roughly double to $220 billion to $280 billion by fiscal 2030 from about $110 billion in fiscal 2023. If that happens, the industry could generate 700,000 to 1 million new jobs by the end of the decade.
The report singled out speciality chemicals as the most promising export category, with dyes and pigments, paints and coatings, agrochemicals, and flavours and fragrances among the sectors most likely to lead the advance. It noted that India already has traction in major markets, with the US accounting for 17% of speciality chemical exports in 2024 and Brazil 16%, although its share in leading import markets remains only about 8%, leaving room for further gains.
The findings chime with other industry forecasts pointing to strong growth. McKinsey & Company has projected that India’s chemicals market could reach as much as $255 billion by 2030, up from around $155 billion to $165 billion now, while also warning of a sizeable trade deficit, particularly in inorganic materials and polymers. That gap underscores the opportunity for domestic manufacturers to substitute imports while expanding capacity for export.
Still, the report warned that policy support alone will not be enough. India’s chemicals industry continues to face infrastructure bottlenecks, regulatory hurdles and the need for more advanced technology. NITI Aayog said targeted investment, reform and an innovation-led ecosystem will be needed if the sector is to move further up the value chain and hit its 2030 targets.
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