India could attract between $90 billion and $95 billion in capital inflows in FY27, driven by a proactive Reserve Bank of India response, boosting foreign currency deposits and strengthening the country’s balance of payments, according to CareEdge Ratings.
India could attract as much as $90 billion to $95 billion in capital inflows in FY27, as a sharp response to the Reserve Bank of India’s concessional swap measures lifts expectations for foreign currency non-resident bank deposits, according to CareEdge Ratings. The agency now sees foreign currency non-resident, or FCNR(B), inflows at about $80 billion, with external commercial borrowings and overseas foreign currency inflows adding a further $10 billion to $15 billion.
That would be a marked improvement on the recent run of inflows. The Times of India reported that the RBI’s swap facility was expected to draw $80 billion to $85 billion in foreign exchange inflows, with nearly $20 billion already recorded by July 17, including $17.4 billion in FCNR(B) deposits. Business Standard said NRI deposit inflows had weakened in April and May, but that the RBI’s swap window helped trigger a much stronger response in June and July.
CareEdge said the rebound could also push India’s capital account surplus to about $108 billion in FY27, up sharply from just $2 billion in the previous year. The broader balance of payments is now projected to move into a surplus of $64 billion, reflecting stronger foreign capital inflows and a more supportive financing backdrop.
Other recent brokerage estimates have pointed in the same direction. Motilal Oswal estimated India’s capital account surplus could reach around $105 billion in FY27, helped by stronger external commercial borrowings, new FCNR(B) deposits, better portfolio flows and resilient foreign direct investment. Separate reports have said the RBI’s policy support could also aid overseas borrowing channels more broadly, while CareEdge said the combined effect of FCNR(B), ECB and overseas foreign currency borrowing windows could sustain inflows through the year.
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